Christmas Sales Growth Forecast

The National Retail Federation predicts that U.S. spending this year will grow between 6% and 8% over the same period in 2021 to top out between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.

That projected growth is about half of last year’s record-breaking seasonal sales growth of 13.5%, to $889.3 billion. But the figures for 2020 and 2021 were unusual because of the pandemic and consumers’ changing spending habits, said Jack Kleinhenz, the federation’s chief economist.

To put those numbers into perspective, the federation said Christmas retail sales over the past 10 years have grown on average by about 5%, with pandemic spending in the past two years accounting for considerable gains.

Some shoppers last year still had stimulus funds and unemployment benefits to spend on Christmas gifts and decor.

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